Want to know when the residential property market will reach the bottom? Wondering how far down the prices will fall and how dynamic their growth will be in the future?

20 april 2009

IntermarkSavills presents the Forecast for average price change on the residential property market in Moscow and Moscow Region up to 2011. The Forecast covers both mid-market prices on property in Moscow Region and prices in separate market segments (IntermarkSavills web-site shows an interactive forecast of average prices on elite property).

The main goal of the forecast is to significantly reduce the level of uncertainty in sales planning, finance modelling, ROI evaluation in existing and prospective real estate development projects.

The forecast can be detailed on-line for particular Moscow districts (Moscow Region localities) and various types of residential property. The forecast can also be customized for other regions of the Russian Federation .

The forecast is based on a functional dependency of the level of retrospective prices on the residential property market on major macroeconomic indicators as identified by our analysts – inflation, USD rate, oil prices, average mortgage rates and others.

The used methodology implies application of mathematical, econometric and statistical methods of forecast including correlation-regression analysis, retrospective data approximation and trend design, and Moscow population buying power analysis.

The benchmark forecast has been made on the basis of a conservative-optimistic scenario of the development of the RF economy implying a smooth growth of world oil prices, inflation decline and rejection of avalanching devaluation of the national currency.

The forecast is runtime (we plan on its monthly confirmation). The forecast indicators will be updated by IntermarkSavills in case of a base macroeconomic scenario correction.

IntermarkSavills professionals are ready to give individual presentations of the methodology and forecast results for real estate development, investment and finance companies. You can apply by email: DKhalin@intermarksavills.ru or on the telephone: +7 (495) 775-2240.

Dmitri Khalin
IntermarkSavills Partner
Head of Strategic Consulting Department